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WeatherTiger's August outlook forecasts neutral ENSO through year-end 2017, with El Niño risk effectively ruled out. Slight La Niña chances are noted for winter, and the equatorial Pacific has cooled to near normal.
Removing El Niño risk lowers the chance of drought in Australia, Southeast Asia and Argentina, which trims the weather premium that supports feed grain and oilseed prices.
weathertiger.comPosted By: Ryan TruchelutAug 11, 2017After 224 past neutral weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.5%), and +0.4% over 20.
After 19 past neutral weather events, Palm Oil moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -0.4% to +1.1%), and +2.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
