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The WMO July 2017 update says ENSO-neutral conditions prevail in the tropical Pacific despite sea surface temperatures near the El Niño threshold. Most climate models expect neutral conditions through July-September, with El Niño development slightly less likely and La Niña unlikely.
A WMO neutral outlook lowers the risk of El Niño-related drought in major grain and oilseed producers, a factor that tends to keep weather premiums out of corn, wheat and palm oil prices.
reliefweb.intJul 7, 2017After 19 past neutral weather events, Palm Oil moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -0.4% to +1.1%), and +2.4% over 20.
After 445 past neutral weather events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 224 past neutral weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.5%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
