◂ Event Timeline

Dec 3, 2025WEATHERGlobal

WMO Update predicts weak La Niña

The WMO says there is a 55% chance of weak La Niña over the next three months, with borderline La Niña conditions established by mid-November. ENSO-neutral conditions are expected to return by early 2026, and El Niño is unlikely.

WHY IT MATTERS

Weak La Niña carries modest drought risk for South America and parts of the US plains, but the expected transition to neutral reduces the chance of significant crop losses that would support feed prices.

AFFECTSSoybeans◆Corn◆

SOURCE
wmo.intDec 3, 2025

Price reaction & history

Soybeans◆neutralSO FAR1d -0.8%5d -3.3%20d -8.4%

After 324 past neutral weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.7%), and +0.7% over 20.

Apr 2, 2018WMO El Niño/La Niña Update – March 2018 | La Niña Ready Nations-1.1%
Aug 20, 2019El Niño/La Niña Update (August 2019)-0.0%
Feb 1, 2023January 2023 La Niña update, and the ENSO Blog investigates, part 2-1.5%
Dec 12, 2024Weak, short-term La Niña expected to develop during winter - Pro Farmer-4.4%
May 7, 2021Agri podcast: La Niña weakened over February and March | OFM+0.4%

Corn◆neutralSO FAR1d -0.9%5d +0.7%20d -0.4%

After 445 past neutral weather events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.

Apr 2, 2018WMO El Niño/La Niña Update – March 2018 | La Niña Ready Nations+2.3%
Aug 20, 2019El Niño/La Niña Update (August 2019)+1.3%
Jul 7, 2017WMO El Niño/La Niña Update, 7 July 2017 - World | ReliefWeb-4.4%
Feb 1, 2023January 2023 La Niña update, and the ENSO Blog investigates, part 2+1.2%
May 1, 2023April 2023 ENSO update: El Niño Watch+0.3%

Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.

Soybeans SOY · GP ▸

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Corn CORN · GP ▸

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