
South African observers report that La Niña weakened rapidly in February and March, and the May-June rainfall outlook is weaker than expected. The CEC raised its 2020/21 South African maize estimate to 16.1 million tonnes and soybean estimate to 1.8 million tonnes.
A higher South African maize crop adds modestly to regional supply and eases import needs, which is mildly bearish for corn. The effect on global prices is limited given South Africa's small share of world trade.
After 357 past bearish weather events, Corn moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.3%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 324 past neutral weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.7%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.