
The US Climate Prediction Center gave a 66% chance of La Niña forming in September to November 2024, with a 74% chance for November to January. The forecast follows a neutral phase and is linked to both floods and droughts for global agriculture.
A higher probability of La Niña points to improved prospects for some crops hit by El Niño, particularly in South America, which would be bearish for soybeans and corn if the pattern develops.
After 363 past bearish weather events, Soybeans moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (42% higher; middle half -2.5% to +1.1%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 357 past bearish weather events, Corn moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.3%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.