
Canola futures have slipped from above $525 a tonne in late June to about $490 by mid-July, with dry weather in Western Canada providing some support. Funds keep adding to short positions while farmers hold supplies awaiting better prices.
A weather premium is limiting downside, but trade uncertainty with China and a large North American oilseed crop keep pressure on canola prices for feed buyers.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 363 past bearish weather events, Soybeans moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (42% higher; middle half -2.5% to +1.1%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.