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The US Climate Prediction Center gives a 59% chance of a weak, short-lived La Nina forming in the November-January period. The agency said weak events are less likely to bring conventional winter impacts.
A weak La Nina carries limited risk of drought for Argentina and Brazil, so it adds little supply premium to soybeans and corn, keeping prices pressured by ample supply.
reuters.comDec 12, 2024After 324 past neutral weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.7%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 445 past neutral weather events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 224 past neutral weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.5%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
