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Reuters reports the US Climate Prediction Center gives a 74% chance of ENSO-neutral conditions through June-August. The article also notes India's 2024/25 sugar estimate was cut to 28 million tons due to El Niño impacts and limited groundwater.
Neutral ENSO conditions suggest more stable weather for crops, which tempers supply-risk premiums, while the Indian sugar cut reflects weather-driven tightness in a related sweetener market.
reuters.comMay 8, 2025After 445 past neutral weather events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 324 past neutral weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.7%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
