◂ Event Timeline

Oct 27, 2017WEATHERGlobal

Models Agree on Brief La Nina

DTN reports that US and Australian forecast models agree the Pacific is in a brief, weak La Niña, with equatorial sea temperatures 1-2 C below normal and the 30-day Southern Oscillation Index at a La Niña-level reading. Both the CPC and Australian Bureau of Meteorology expect a return to neutral conditions in the first quarter of 2018.

WHY IT MATTERS

A short-lived, weak La Niña limits the likelihood of prolonged drought in key growing areas, which reduces the weather premium in grain and oilseed prices. The expected quick return to neutral conditions argues against a sustained supply shock.

AFFECTSCorn◆Soybeans◆Wheat (SRW)◆

SOURCE
dtnpf.comBryce AndersonOct 27, 2017

Price reaction & history

Corn◆neutralSO FAR1d -0.3%5d -0.2%20d -5.4%

After 445 past neutral weather events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.

Mar 23, 2023Bye, Bye La Nina | Iowa Soybean Association+1.6%
Feb 25, 2025DTN Ag Weather Brief-5.8%
Apr 15, 2025DTN Ag Weather Brief-0.8%
Apr 30, 2025DTN Ag Weather Brief-1.7%
Dec 12, 2024US forecaster sees 59% chance of weak, brief La Nina forming by January-0.0%

Soybeans◆neutralSO FAR1d +0.4%5d +1.8%20d +2.3%

After 324 past neutral weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.7%), and +0.7% over 20.

Mar 23, 2023Bye, Bye La Nina | Iowa Soybean Association+2.0%
Apr 30, 2025DTN Ag Weather Brief-0.6%
Feb 25, 2025DTN Ag Weather Brief-3.0%
Apr 15, 2025DTN Ag Weather Brief-0.6%
Dec 12, 2024US forecaster sees 59% chance of weak, brief La Nina forming by January-4.4%

Wheat (SRW)◆neutralSO FAR1d -0.2%5d -4.0%20d -5.9%

After 224 past neutral weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.5%), and +0.4% over 20.

Nov 24, 2017Australia La Nina Comments-0.1%
Feb 25, 2025DTN Ag Weather Brief-4.7%
Dec 12, 2024US forecaster sees 59% chance of weak, brief La Nina forming by January-0.5%
Jul 1, 2024El Niño and La Niña: Impact on Global Agriculture and What to Expect Next+6.6%
Oct 5, 2017La Nina could return cold, snowy tradition to Prairies - Grainews+4.7%

Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.

Corn CORN · GP ▸

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Soybeans SOY · GP ▸

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