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The Australian Bureau of Meteorology has raised its ENSO Outlook to La Niña Alert, with about a 70% chance of La Niña forming. Models suggest the event will be weak and short-lived, unlike the strong 2010-12 La Niña.
Tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures are just shy of La Niña thresholds.
A weak, short event is unlikely to cause major crop losses in Australia or elsewhere, so it has limited price impact. Any drought that does develop would matter most for wheat and barley.
dtnpf.comBryce AndersonNov 24, 2017After 224 past neutral weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.5%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
