About 70% of Australia's 2021-22 winter crop has been planted, with average or better yields possible if the season is favourable. IKON Commodities puts canola at 4.7 million tonnes and wheat at 29.5 million tonnes, while Australia Crop Forecasters estimates wheat at 25.5 million tonnes.
Both forecasts point to wheat and barley area and output below last year.
Planting progress and forecasts for lower wheat and barley output point to reduced Australian export supply, which supports prices. Strong canola prospects add to the oilseed picture.
After 224 past neutral weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.5%), and +0.4% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.