Corteva and DTN meteorologists say La Niña has not yet formed in the Pacific, with a 70% chance it develops in August through October. The Corn Belt is generally in good shape, with excess moisture in the Dakotas and Minnesota and dryness in pockets of Ohio, Kentucky and Tennessee.
A developing La Niña could shift harvest and next-season weather risk, but current conditions remain favorable, so the near-term price impact is limited.
After 445 past neutral weather events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 324 past neutral weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.7%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.