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Forecast models increasingly point to La Niña returning after the 2023 El Niño, with strong agreement among long-range guidance. The timing and speed of the transition remain uncertain, so the specific effects on the 2024 US growing season are still unclear.
A shift toward La Niña raises the risk of dryness in key US growing areas, which could support corn and soybean prices if it materializes during the season.
empireweather.comJohn HomenukJan 30, 2024After 445 past neutral weather events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 324 past neutral weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.7%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
