
DTN meteorologist John Baranick says La Niña is ending in early 2026 with a possible El Niño by summer, making 2026 a variable weather year. He notes USDA's January WASDE estimated record corn and soybean yields for 2025 and near-record wheat.
Variable summer conditions add uncertainty to US crop prospects, but the record 2025 crop already sets a large supply base that caps price gains.
After 445 past neutral weather events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 324 past neutral weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.7%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 224 past neutral weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.5%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.