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NOAA issued an El Niño Advisory, confirming El Niño conditions are present and expected to strengthen into winter, with an 84% chance of at least moderate strength by winter. The article outlines likely impacts on US and global crops for 2023.
A strengthening El Niño raises the risk of drought in some producing regions and favorable conditions in others, shaping expectations for global grain and oilseed supplies. Markets may price in weather risk for crops in affected areas.
agweb.comJun 8, 2023After 445 past neutral weather events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 324 past neutral weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.7%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 224 past neutral weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.5%), and +0.4% over 20.
After 181 past bullish weather events, Palm Oil moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (56% higher; middle half -0.9% to +1.9%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
