
U.S. Wheat Associates previews the 2024/25 world wheat crop as northern hemisphere winter wheat breaks dormancy. It notes Australia and Argentina received showers that boosted summer crop yield potential and replenished soil moisture for winter wheat planting.
Weather analysts expect a rapid transition from El Niño to La Niña between June and August.
Early weather signals for the next crop year, including the El Niño to La Niña transition, shape expectations for wheat supply and can move forward prices.
After 29 past neutral weather events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median +0.6% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.9% to +2.3%), and -0.7% over 20.
After 224 past neutral weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.5%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.