
Basis Commodities says the Australian wheat crop has been downgraded after heavy rain and flooding on the east coast, which caused crop losses and quality downgrades. ABARES's December report still forecast a record 58.4 million tonne winter crop, including 34.4 million tonnes of wheat.
More wheat is shifting from milling to feed grade, adding feed supply and offsetting some of the tightness in global milling wheat balance sheets.
After 224 past neutral weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.5%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.