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Dry weather and hot temperatures are a concern for the EU wheat crop, though French soft wheat was rated 80% good or excellent. Traders expect French soft wheat output of 37-38 million tonnes, above last year's 36.6 million and the five-year average.
Dryness across parts of the EU could trim supply, but a solid French outlook limits upside for wheat and feed grain prices.
After 224 past neutral weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.5%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.