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A weekly commentary from Grainbrokers discusses the Indian Ocean Dipole returning to neutral after a positive phase and the effects of Australian bushfires. The article title also references EU and Russia wheat crop risks.
Neutral IOD removes a driver of Australian weather, but the wheat crop risk commentary is only general, so price impact is minimal for feed buyers.
After 224 past neutral weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.5%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.