
Rain in Europe this week brought relief to dry wheat belts, though analysts said more moisture is needed to stop the harvest shrinking further. The European Commission had cut its EU common wheat forecast to 121.5 million tonnes, and traders expect a French soft wheat crop of 32-33 million tonnes versus 39.5 million last year.
Germany's rain was also welcome, though it needs more in the east.
Rain stabilizes the EU crop outlook, easing some of the upward price pressure from a smaller harvest, but a much smaller crop remains supportive for wheat.
After 224 past neutral weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.5%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.