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Reuters reports forecasts for a strong El Nino in the second half of 2026, with heat and dryness already seen in Australia and India. India expects below-average monsoon rains, and farmers face fertilizer shortages and costly fuel from the Iran war.
A strong El Nino combined with fertilizer and fuel shortages threatens Asian and Australian grain and oilseed output, supporting prices for feed grains and oilseeds.
agcanada.comAGCanadaApr 24, 2026After 1,465 past bullish weather events, CORN moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 1,072 past bullish weather events, WHEAT moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 179 past bullish weather events, RICE moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.5%), and +2.2% over 20.
After 181 past bullish weather events, PALMOIL moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (56% higher; middle half -0.9% to +1.9%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
A strong El Niño forecast and fertilizer and fuel constraints raise crop-risk sentiment and could support futures.
