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DTN reports that Australia's 2023-24 wheat crop faces much lower soil moisture as El Niño dries key production areas. USDA cut its Australian wheat estimate by 3 million tons to 26 million in September, a decline of more than 10%.
A more than 10% cut in Australian wheat output removes a major exporter's supply and supports global wheat prices.
After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.