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A Reuters survey of five analysts and traders forecasts Australian wheat production in the 2025/26 season at about 28.6 million tonnes on average, roughly 16% below the prior record harvest. Forecasts range from 27 to 30.75 million tonnes, and ABARES estimated 30.5 million tonnes in March.
Drought is cutting soil moisture in parts of the country, with South Australia and Victoria facing the most severe dryness.
A smaller Australian crop reduces exportable wheat supply just as the new marketing year begins, which tends to support world wheat prices. Buyers relying on wheat and barley for feed should expect firmer offers if the dryness persists.
ukragroconsult.comApr 2, 2025After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
