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NAB's Rural Commodities Index fell 1.2% in July, while wheat prices rose 10.8% after an 8.2% rise the month before. NAB cut its 2017-18 national wheat forecast to 22.7Mt from 23.3Mt, and warned that a dry rest of season could push the crop into the high teens or low twenties.
A smaller Australian wheat crop and rising domestic prices support wheat values and create a feed-grain premium as livestock producers look for supply. Weather outcomes over the rest of the season will decide how far prices move.
graincentral.comGrain CentralAug 8, 2017After 1,072 past bullish weather events, WHEAT moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
