
Strategie Grains cut its 2024 EU soft wheat production forecast to 122.6 million tons, down from 122.7 million in January and 2.5% below last year's 125.8 million. It also trimmed EU barley to 53.1 million tons and raised the EU corn forecast to 64.0 million.
Lower EU wheat output from rain-delayed planting tightens the export balance for feed and milling wheat, modestly supporting wheat prices and feed substitution demand.
After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 445 past neutral weather events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.