
Strategie Grains cut its EU soft wheat forecast to 126.2 million tonnes, down from 128.7 million in May, and lowered its barley forecast by 0.8 million tonnes to 47.1 million. It also trimmed its maize estimate to 60.8 million tonnes after harsh weather across the bloc.
Spanish barley yields were confirmed as catastrophically low.
Lower EU wheat, barley and maize crops reduce exportable supply and support prices for feed grains. Feed buyers face higher costs for barley and maize, especially if July rain does not arrive.
After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.