ABARES cut its 2018-19 Australian wheat estimate to 16.95 million tonnes from 19.1 million in September, lowest since the 2008 drought. Barley is forecast down 18 per cent to 7.3 million tonnes and canola down 39 per cent, with world wheat prices already at two-month highs.
A major exporter's shortfall reduces global wheat and barley export supply, which supports feed grain values and could lift the cost of wheat-based rations.
After 1,072 past bullish weather events, WHEAT moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.