
ABARES cut its national grain production forecasts, with wheat at 21.6 Mt and total winter crops at 36.3 Mt, down 39%. Queensland wheat is halved to 900,000 t and Queensland barley to 150,000 t, with August frosts also expected to hurt southern yields.
Sharply lower Queensland and southern output reduces Australian feed grain supply and supports export prices for barley and wheat.
After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.