
ABARES forecasts New South Wales winter crop production at 5.1 million tonnes, up 77% on last year but still constrained by hot, dry weather. Drought is spreading south, with further downgrades expected, and northern farmers are waiting for rain before planting summer crops.
Persistent drought in NSW tightens feed grain supply in eastern Australia, supporting local wheat and barley prices and pulling grain from export markets.
After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.