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Wheat prices rose after the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange cut its 2020/21 Argentine wheat production estimate to 17.5 million t, 3.5 million t below its May forecast, with drought affecting much of the growing area. Dollar strength and lower oil prices limited gains, and US futures fell on the day.
A sharply lower Argentine crop reduces export supply and supports world wheat prices, although a stronger dollar makes US wheat less competitive abroad.
graintrade.com.uaSep 24, 2020After 1,072 past bullish weather events, WHEAT moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 15 past bullish weather events, DXY moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.2%), and -0.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange cut its Argentine wheat estimate by 3.5 million t, tightening global supply and supporting a rebound in US wheat.
