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USDA cut its 2026-27 U.S. winter wheat production forecast by about 2% from the previous month because of persistent Great Plains drought. Hard red winter wheat output is expected to fall to its lowest level in decades, and only about a quarter of the crop is rated good to excellent.
Hard red wheat futures rose on the outlook.
Tighter HRW supply is a major bullish driver for wheat and HRW prices, and it could push up costs for wheat-based feed ingredients. Harvest weather will determine whether losses deepen.
agricultureofamerica.comJun 22, 2026After 322 past bullish weather events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -2.5% to +3.2%), and +1.0% over 20.
After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
