
Chicago winter wheat futures rallied to seven-month highs above $5 a bushel in March on fears that an intensifying drought in the US Plains would hurt crops. Planted winter wheat acreage is already at a 109-year low.
Hard red winter wheat supplies are tight, and millers have been paying historically high premiums for top-quality grain.
Drought risk to the hard red winter crop and already tight high-protein supplies support prices for wheat used in feed and food. Buyers of wheat-based feed should expect firm KC wheat prices while the dry weather persists.
After 322 past bullish weather events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -2.5% to +3.2%), and +1.0% over 20.
After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.