U.S. Hard Red Winter Wheat in Drought Adds Supply Concerns

After 322 past bullish weather events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -2.5% to +3.2%), and +1.0% over 20.

• Apr 29, 2026U.S. hard red winter wheat crop finds itself in trouble | The Western Producer-2.8%
• Mar 13, 2018Drought threat intensifies for U.S. Plains winter wheat crop-7.6%
• May 5, 2026Drought, frost provide lift for U.S. hard red wheat price | The Western Producer-1.3%
• May 1, 2026Hard Red Winter Wheat Crop Rivals 2023 Disaster After Drought and Freeze Damage-3.4%
• Jan 30, 2018U.S. grains: Winter wheat jumps as crop conditions drop - Grainews+1.9%

After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.

• Apr 29, 2026U.S. hard red winter wheat crop finds itself in trouble | The Western Producer-3.1%
• Mar 13, 2018Drought threat intensifies for U.S. Plains winter wheat crop-1.6%
• May 5, 2026Drought, frost provide lift for U.S. hard red wheat price | The Western Producer+1.8%
• May 1, 2026Hard Red Winter Wheat Crop Rivals 2023 Disaster After Drought and Freeze Damage-2.9%
• Apr 26, 2021Wheat price rises to highest in eight years on supply concerns | Seeking Alpha+3.3%