U.S. hard red winter wheat crop finds itself in trouble

After 322 past bullish weather events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -2.5% to +3.2%), and +1.0% over 20.

• May 5, 2026Drought, frost provide lift for U.S. hard red wheat price | The Western Producer-1.3%
• Sep 21, 2017U.S. winter wheat plantings might be smaller | The Western Producer+2.5%
• Apr 13, 2022U.S. Hard Red Winter Wheat in Drought Adds Supply Concerns+0.1%
• Jul 27, 2017Crop futures higher Thurs. on dry weather | The Western Producer-2.3%
• Oct 22, 2022Rains threaten South American wheat | The Western Producer-2.5%

After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.

• May 5, 2026Drought, frost provide lift for U.S. hard red wheat price | The Western Producer+1.8%
• Sep 21, 2017U.S. winter wheat plantings might be smaller | The Western Producer-6.6%
• Jul 26, 2023‘It’s crop insurance territory’ | The Western Producer-0.6%
• Apr 13, 2022U.S. Hard Red Winter Wheat in Drought Adds Supply Concerns-0.5%
• Dec 2, 2019Wet autumn to cut wheat area in France, UK in setback for next harvest | The Western Producer-0.7%