U.S. winter wheat plantings might be smaller

After 322 past bullish weather events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -2.5% to +3.2%), and +1.0% over 20.

• Apr 29, 2026U.S. hard red winter wheat crop finds itself in trouble | The Western Producer-2.8%
• May 5, 2026Drought, frost provide lift for U.S. hard red wheat price | The Western Producer-1.3%
• Oct 22, 2022Rains threaten South American wheat | The Western Producer-2.5%
• Jan 11, 2019Small U.S. Winter Wheat Crop Likely - ProAg+1.1%
• Aug 30, 2021Exports to bear brunt of short crop | The Western Producer+0.4%

After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.

• Apr 29, 2026U.S. hard red winter wheat crop finds itself in trouble | The Western Producer-3.1%
• May 5, 2026Drought, frost provide lift for U.S. hard red wheat price | The Western Producer+1.8%
• Oct 22, 2022Rains threaten South American wheat | The Western Producer-0.6%
• Jul 26, 2023‘It’s crop insurance territory’ | The Western Producer-0.6%
• Aug 30, 2021Exports to bear brunt of short crop | The Western Producer+0.2%

Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.