Drought, frost provide lift for U.S. hard red wheat price

After 322 past bullish weather events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -2.5% to +3.2%), and +1.0% over 20.

• Apr 29, 2026U.S. hard red winter wheat crop finds itself in trouble | The Western Producer-2.8%
• Sep 21, 2017U.S. winter wheat plantings might be smaller | The Western Producer+2.5%
• Apr 13, 2022U.S. Hard Red Winter Wheat in Drought Adds Supply Concerns+0.1%
• Oct 22, 2022Rains threaten South American wheat | The Western Producer-2.5%
• Jul 23, 2021Crop markets wake up to evolving drought disaster | The Western Producer+3.2%

After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.

• Apr 29, 2026U.S. hard red winter wheat crop finds itself in trouble | The Western Producer-3.1%
• Dec 2, 2019Wet autumn to cut wheat area in France, UK in setback for next harvest | The Western Producer-0.7%
• Sep 21, 2017U.S. winter wheat plantings might be smaller | The Western Producer-6.6%
• Apr 13, 2022U.S. Hard Red Winter Wheat in Drought Adds Supply Concerns-0.5%
• May 29, 2024‘Weather market’ resumes role as price driver | The Western Producer-5.3%