
The July 12 USDA report pegged US spring wheat at 345 million bushels, down 41 percent from last year, and durum at 37.2 million bushels. Canola December futures rose above C$900 per tonne and soyoil neared its 2008 high as northern Plains and Western Canada dryness intensified.
Drought in the northern grain belt is cutting wheat, canola and oilseed supplies, pushing up protein meal and feed grain prices.
After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 322 past bullish weather events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -2.5% to +3.2%), and +1.0% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 184 past bullish weather events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.9% to +2.4%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.