
Agriculture Canada forecasts total grain, oilseed, pulse and special crop exports at 36 million tonnes, down 39% from 59 million last year, the smallest since 2006-07. Canola exports are forecast at 7 million tonnes versus 10.9 million previously, as drought cuts production by about 27 million tonnes.
Sharply lower Canadian exports force importers to source from other origins, supporting world prices for canola, wheat and feed grains and raising feed costs.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 68 past bullish weather events, Oats moved a median -0.8% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -3.6% to +3.9%), and -0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.