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Argentina's Rosario Grains Exchange cut its 2022-23 wheat crop forecast to 18.5 million tonnes from 19 million and lowered planted area to 15.3 million acres, the lowest in 12 years. Dry La Nina conditions and reduced planting are behind the cuts.
A smaller Argentine wheat crop reduces exportable supply at a time of tight global wheat stocks, supporting world wheat prices.
After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.