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Nearly half of the U.S. winter wheat crop is in poor or very poor condition after drought, wildfires and record heat across the Great Plains. Oklahoma producers expect yields near 30 bushels per acre, compared with much higher yields last year.
Some farmers are leaving poor-condition crops in the field.
Heavy crop losses in the HRW belt tighten U.S. wheat supply and support prices. Smaller harvests could raise wheat-based feed and food costs.
hppr.orgCalen MooreJun 22, 2026After 322 past bullish weather events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -2.5% to +3.2%), and +1.0% over 20.
After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
