
The March 24 drought monitor shows 77.1% of the U.S. in abnormal dryness or drought, with 41% of corn acres and 42% of soybean acres in drought. Unseasonably warm weather fueled the Morrill Fire in Nebraska, which has burned over 800,000 acres.
Forecasts call for a Pacific storm to bring relief to the eastern Corn Belt.
Expanding Plains drought and warm, dry conditions raise concern for winter wheat and early planting, which can support grain prices until rain arrives.
After 322 past bullish weather events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -2.5% to +3.2%), and +1.0% over 20.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.