
The February 10 US Drought Monitor showed 72.6% of the country in abnormal dryness or drought, up 2.1 points in a week. Drought covered 31% of corn acres, 37% of soybean acres and 45% of winter wheat acres.
Snowpack was near historic lows.
Expanding drought over winter wheat and row-crop acreage raises early concern for the 2026 crop, which can support feed grain and wheat prices. Impact depends on spring rainfall.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 322 past bullish weather events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -2.5% to +3.2%), and +1.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.