
The Pro Farmer Crop Condition Index for corn fell 8.25 points after USDA showed a four-point weekly drop in good-to-excellent ratings, the largest single-week decline of the season. Declines were widespread, with heat stress affecting corn, soybeans and wheat.
A sharp drop in the condition index signals lower expected yields and supports corn and soybean prices as the market prices in tighter supplies.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.