
ABARES slashed its estimate of total winter grain production by 12% to 33.2 million tonnes, with wheat at 19.1 million tonnes. Private forecasters are broadly in line, and attention is shifting to Victoria and South Australia where dry conditions are emerging.
Uncertainty over southern Australian crops keeps upward pressure on feed grain prices as buyers seek supply.
After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.