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Grain and soy futures rallied after the July 4 holiday, with December corn up 14 cents to $4.55 and November soybeans up 41 cents to $11.89, both at their highest in about a month. Wheat also rose to three-week highs.
Drivers included hot, dry weather forecast for the western Corn Belt and a heatwave in Europe.
Dry US weather during the critical pollination period and European heat threaten yields, supporting feed grain and oilseed meal prices heading into August.
profarmer.comBill WattsJul 6, 2026After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 322 past bullish weather events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -2.5% to +3.2%), and +1.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Post-July 4 rally with November soybeans up 41 cents on hot, dry western Corn Belt forecasts is a direct supply-risk driver of the move ending July 6.
Post-July 4 rally with November soybeans up 41 cents (~3.6%) on hot, dry western Corn Belt forecasts directly matches the large one-day move.
