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US wheat futures rallied to their highest in over two months on Monday as dryness in Russia and the US Plains and attacks on a Ukrainian port supported prices. USDA reported 50% of winter wheat rated good to excellent, down from 55% the prior week.
Dry weather threatening Russian and US hard red winter wheat cuts expected supplies and tightens export availability, lifting wheat prices and supporting feed wheat alternatives to corn.
agcanada.comAGCanadaApr 22, 2024After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 322 past bullish weather events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -2.5% to +3.2%), and +1.0% over 20.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Apr 22 rally to a two-month high on Russian and US Plains dryness, a Ukrainian port attack and a drop in winter wheat conditions to 50% good/excellent directly drove the 5-day gain via supply-risk repricing.
