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Chicago wheat futures rose more than 3% to a one-week high on February 16, 2021, after record cold in the US Plains raised fears of freeze damage to winter wheat. Analysts estimated that about 30% of hard red winter wheat was exposed to significant freeze risk, and corn and soybeans also firmed.
Potential damage to US hard red winter wheat would tighten wheat supplies and could lift wheat-based feed costs. Corn and soybean gains reflect a firm overall grain complex.
agcanada.comAGCanadaFeb 17, 2021After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 322 past bullish weather events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -2.5% to +3.2%), and +1.0% over 20.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Describes a 3%+ wheat rally on freeze exposure for about 30% of HRW wheat, which is the same weather-driven supply-risk theme as the move, though it is dated after Feb 15.
