
Wheat futures rose nearly 3% to two-week highs on April 25 amid dry US weather in the south and a poor start to spring in Russia. USDA data showed only 31% of winter wheat rated good or excellent, versus 52% a year earlier.
Dry US and Russian conditions reduce expected wheat supplies, supporting prices and raising feed wheat costs for buyers. The gains reflect weather risk rather than confirmed production losses.
After 322 past bullish weather events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -2.5% to +3.2%), and +1.0% over 20.
After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.