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Grain markets rallied in the third week of January 2022 after a batch of USDA reports the prior week brought little new information. Attention shifted to South American weather, with uneven rain in southern Brazil and heavy rain in Argentina, plus US export demand and wheat geopolitical concerns.
Dryness in southern Brazil and Argentina cuts soybean and corn output expectations, supporting feed grain and meal prices. Mixed rain that arrived late gives only partial relief, so the rally is supported by yield risk.
agweek.comRandy MartinsonJan 21, 2022After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 453 past bullish weather events, Soybean Meal moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.7%), and +0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
