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Grain markets traded in a narrow range in the week of December 18 to 22, 2023, as traders awaited confirmation of Brazil's dry weather. Soybeans rallied on Brazil rain shortfalls while wheat fell sharply early in the week.
Argentina also announced a short-term halt to its grain exports.
Argentina's export halt and Brazil's dryness both tighten near-term South American supply, which supports soybean and meal prices. Weakness in wheat reflects limited export demand.
agweek.comRandy MartinsonDec 22, 2023After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 453 past bullish weather events, Soybean Meal moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.7%), and +0.5% over 20.
After 334 past bearish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.9% to +1.7%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 445 past neutral weather events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
